"Will Russia be able to wage a war with the United States? China must get ready for the worst and make three preparations in advance" - this is the title of a Chinese blog post called "The Order of a Great State" (link below). It was published several days ago and it gives recommendations for China in case Russia is defeated and breaks down if the United States directly enter the war on Ukraine's side against Russia.
It's apparent that the publication didn't appear by accident. China assesses all possible scenarios of how the situation might develop, including Russia's possible defeat and disintegration, and is making preparations for all of them.
Unlike the West, which is largely guided by irrational fears regarding Russia's possible breakup, China is very pragmatic about this possibility and is developing action plans.
These musings are important as they show that China is considering different options of future relations with Russia and the West.
The three recommendations for China in this publication are as follows:
1️⃣ Make preparations for a possible war with the United States. "Currently, Russia might help China to share part of the pressure from the USA, but as soon as Russia falls, the United States will be able to concentrate all their energy on the fight with China," the article goes.
2️⃣ Ensure Europe's neutrality in this war. China must build its relations with European countries in a way to "not only make these countries take an opposite side from the United States but guarantee that after the United States announce war to China, they will remain neutral or at least will not interfere too much in the Chinese-American conflict." China must proceed from the fact that it has huge potential for cooperation with Europe and "no fundamental conflict of interest nor any geostrategic contradiction. Common interest of the parties far outweigh their differences."
3️⃣ Revise its policy regarding Russia in case a "pro-American" regime comes to power there (or even if "anti-American" Putin loses his power). "As soon as Russia falls, China will have to think how to treat Russia: fundamental changes might happen inside it... As soon as Russia falls, Putin will probably have to resign. Currently, to have better control of Russia, the United States and the West will probably support a pro-American Russian government. And then Russia might become an enemy to China, not an ally. In that case, China will have to alter its policy regarding Russia. Russia and China are separated by a long land border. As soon as Russia's internal development changes drastically, China will have to place troops on the Chinese-Russian border in order to not allow Russian internal changes to influence China," the "Order of a Great State" writes.
It is a well-known fact that Chinese media that write on topics like this are heavily censored. A publication of this sort probably appeared after someone at the top allowed this. Consequently, this could be a sort of "signal" that Beijing saw fit to make public.
The signal is probably intended to demonstrate that China has made a realistic and sober assessment of the situation and is prepared for any outcome, including the change of leadership in Russia to a "pro-Western" one and Russia's possible disintegration.
China plays its own geopolitical game, using Russia, counting on possible American-European disagreements and using the war in Ukraine to enhance its own positions.
All of these are important points for future decisions and strategy that need to be considered and noted.
The article:
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1819481774063691278&wfr=spider&for=pc