If Putin Refuses to Stop the War, Trump Will “Bomb” Russia’s Economy — The Telegraph
Ukraine is losing ground in the battlefield conflict, while Russia struggles economically. The Kremlin’s oil revenues are too low to sustain its war efforts, and no one is willing to lend Putin money.
Russia’s economy resembles Germany’s in late 1917, weakened by war and blockades. Like then, Russia faces labor shortages and logistical failures.
Putin’s position in Ukraine looks increasingly shaky, especially after the collapse of the Assad regime. His inability to protect his only Arab ally undermines his credibility in the Middle East. Turkey has taken the lead in the region, even rescuing Russian generals from tough situations. If Russia retains its base in Tartus, it will be on Turkish terms.
“Putin is negotiating peace from a position of weakness,” said Tim Ash of Chatham House.
When Trump won in 2016, the Kremlin celebrated. This time, there are no illusions. Trump has imposed 40 rounds of sanctions on Russia, and experts predict he’ll increase pressure. If Zelenskyy refuses peace terms, the U.S. may cut military aid to Ukraine. If Putin delays, the U.S. could escalate economic sanctions.
Russia’s National Welfare Fund is depleting rapidly. Liquid assets have dropped to $54 billion, and gold reserves have halved in 15 months. With oil prices expected to stay low — possibly dropping to $45 next year — Russia’s economic situation looks dire.
The G7’s oil sanctions are cutting Putin’s income while keeping global oil prices stable. Russia relies on a shadow fleet to sell discounted oil to India and China, losing an estimated $75 million a day.
If Saudi Arabia floods the market with cheap oil, as some predict, prices could drop below $40. This would leave Russia in a critical economic position.
The war in Ukraine may ultimately be decided in Riyadh.
Ukraine is losing ground in the battlefield conflict, while Russia struggles economically. The Kremlin’s oil revenues are too low to sustain its war efforts, and no one is willing to lend Putin money.
Russia’s economy resembles Germany’s in late 1917, weakened by war and blockades. Like then, Russia faces labor shortages and logistical failures.
Putin’s position in Ukraine looks increasingly shaky, especially after the collapse of the Assad regime. His inability to protect his only Arab ally undermines his credibility in the Middle East. Turkey has taken the lead in the region, even rescuing Russian generals from tough situations. If Russia retains its base in Tartus, it will be on Turkish terms.
“Putin is negotiating peace from a position of weakness,” said Tim Ash of Chatham House.
When Trump won in 2016, the Kremlin celebrated. This time, there are no illusions. Trump has imposed 40 rounds of sanctions on Russia, and experts predict he’ll increase pressure. If Zelenskyy refuses peace terms, the U.S. may cut military aid to Ukraine. If Putin delays, the U.S. could escalate economic sanctions.
Russia’s National Welfare Fund is depleting rapidly. Liquid assets have dropped to $54 billion, and gold reserves have halved in 15 months. With oil prices expected to stay low — possibly dropping to $45 next year — Russia’s economic situation looks dire.
The G7’s oil sanctions are cutting Putin’s income while keeping global oil prices stable. Russia relies on a shadow fleet to sell discounted oil to India and China, losing an estimated $75 million a day.
If Saudi Arabia floods the market with cheap oil, as some predict, prices could drop below $40. This would leave Russia in a critical economic position.
The war in Ukraine may ultimately be decided in Riyadh.