1.5 months in, checking back on the base scenario:
US stocks — 5–15% correction around the SpaceX IPO, shallower than I expected. Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs still ahead, so I’m waiting on more volatility and a better entry.
China — the names I was bullish on found their bottom, +20–30% in under two months. Next checkpoint: Xi’s visit to the US.
Gold +15%
BTC +30%
Plan for Autumn:
1. Rebalance Chinese/US stocks during mega IPOs.
2. DCA BTC under $60k
US stocks — 5–15% correction around the SpaceX IPO, shallower than I expected. Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs still ahead, so I’m waiting on more volatility and a better entry.
China — the names I was bullish on found their bottom, +20–30% in under two months. Next checkpoint: Xi’s visit to the US.
Gold +15%
BTC +30%
Plan for Autumn:
1. Rebalance Chinese/US stocks during mega IPOs.
2. DCA BTC under $60k