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SYRIA BEYOND THE NEWS - ENDGAME ✍️ Written by SITREP✍️
Foreword: In continuation of the day before yesterday's
Forecast, following significant events, we try to assess the situation. Before, some important events from the last 2 days:
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Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is calling for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which aligns with Turk's objective of destroying the US-allied
Syrian Democratic forces (SDF) and constitutes an implicit call by HTS to disarm the SDF, which corresponds to the shortly previous demand of the Turk FM to address the Kurd forces problem. The US State Department, which is in permanent contact with the Turk regarding the situation in northern Syria, is being permanently. The new Syrian forces now control military operations along the Syrian coast. Meanwhile, HTS still calls for lifting sanctions.
🇺🇳 UN Secretary-General Guterres found out that 'Israeli airstrikes on Syria are violations of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and must stop.'
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The SDF started a largescale campaign in Maadan at Raqqa countryside after some ISIS sleeper cells entered it. Furthermore, they called for mobilisation in Kobani.
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The Pentagon said that they have 2,000 instead of 900 troops at the site. US diplomats will arrive in Damascus today to meet with still as terrorist listed HTS leader al-Julani.
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Erdogan's Syrian National Army (SNA), despite an ceasefire until end of the week, clashed with US' SDF at the Tel Temr line east of Ras al-Ayn and some other locations. The Turk is still moving tanks and other armoured vehicles to the Syrian-Turkish border.
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Syria's largest oil refinery has halted operations after ceasing to receive the crude from Iran. In Damascus, a mass demonstration was held, demanding the transfer of power from HTS to civilians.
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Iraqi FM Minister said that ISIS is expanding its areas of control and reorganising its ranks using weapons it seized as a result of the Syrian army's collapse. Iraq handed over the soldiers of the 4th Division, affiliated with Maher al-Assad, to the new Syrian authorities.
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Putin said that the Russian troops in Syria have achieved their goal. Even terrorist groups have changed, since now Western partners are talking to them. And Khmeimim and Tartus will now be used to deliver humanitarian aid to the Syrian people. The RFAF continue to evacuate troops from the deep Syrian regions.
Between the US and the Turk, tensions continue. We still don't expect a Turk ground offensive. Erdogan would be crossing the lines. The US cannot afford to be compromised internationally, abandoning one more time an ally. We assume that despite the external banter, agreements have been made in the background.
Ruler al-Julani is uncompromisingly sticking to his demands and still does not have a real alliance. He missed the chance to form a new surprise alliance with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. The fact that al-Julani only has limited control shows the resurgence of ISIS. The economic problems are obvious. Much of the remaining infrastructure was destroyed by Israel. The most oil-rich areas are in the hands of the Kurds. The others are unsafe, thanks to ISIS. In our opinion, HTS does not have enough power to restore order. Furthermore, Al Juljani receives in fact no support from his Western praisers. The sanctions continue.
Erdogan and Netanyahu are the winners for now. Both were able to gain control of territory.
📌 Given the Events, Libyan conditions are inevitable unless a miracle occurs. Russia is on the defensive. We doubt that both bases will be preserved.
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Previous Assessment; #syr #hk #ass
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