In recent weeks, I have posted a lot about Russian economy. There are clear signs that excessive military spending, lack of human resources and sanctions are mounting up towards a crisis and possible collapse.
❗️It might look like that all there is left is to sit and wait for this collapse to happen - that could not be farther from the truth.
Russia is not isolated - it has the support of China, India and other countries that support its economy.
Russian population is used to being poor and is ready to live in even greater poverty. They are ready to sacrifice their lives and the lives of their children.
❗️This is a critical stage of the war, and the efforts to strengthen Ukrainian positions must intensify, and the pressure on Russia must increase significantly.
Russian economy is indeed not very healthy at the moment. Putin's regime throws billions into the war, there is a large labor shortage and the economy is overheated. However, Russia does receive large revenues from selling oil and gas, and it has "safety cushions" - reserves it can lean on.
❗️Time plays into Russia's hands and against Ukraine.
In short, the costs of the war are piling up for Russia but they are not doing that fast enough to help Ukraine win the war and ensure sustainable and lasting peace.
And yet, Russian economy remains the greatest Russian vulnerability. The West still has a lot of room to inflict significant damage here. That is one of the best ways to strengthen Ukrainian positions in the war and help end it sooner (apart from weapon deliveries).
An important focus point is Russian oil and Russian shadow fleet.
Here is a very good overview of what the United States and the EU can do in the nearest future to make Russia much more vulnerable and the costs of war unbearable:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russian-economy-remains-putins-greatest-weakness
❗️It might look like that all there is left is to sit and wait for this collapse to happen - that could not be farther from the truth.
Russia is not isolated - it has the support of China, India and other countries that support its economy.
Russian population is used to being poor and is ready to live in even greater poverty. They are ready to sacrifice their lives and the lives of their children.
❗️This is a critical stage of the war, and the efforts to strengthen Ukrainian positions must intensify, and the pressure on Russia must increase significantly.
Russian economy is indeed not very healthy at the moment. Putin's regime throws billions into the war, there is a large labor shortage and the economy is overheated. However, Russia does receive large revenues from selling oil and gas, and it has "safety cushions" - reserves it can lean on.
❗️Time plays into Russia's hands and against Ukraine.
In short, the costs of the war are piling up for Russia but they are not doing that fast enough to help Ukraine win the war and ensure sustainable and lasting peace.
And yet, Russian economy remains the greatest Russian vulnerability. The West still has a lot of room to inflict significant damage here. That is one of the best ways to strengthen Ukrainian positions in the war and help end it sooner (apart from weapon deliveries).
An important focus point is Russian oil and Russian shadow fleet.
Here is a very good overview of what the United States and the EU can do in the nearest future to make Russia much more vulnerable and the costs of war unbearable:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russian-economy-remains-putins-greatest-weakness